BEEF

The market is steady to weaker. Total beef production for last week was up 19.9% versus the prior week and down 3.5% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 3.4% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 568,000, as compared to 605,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 15.62 million head, which is down 6.5% from last year. Live weights for last week were down 1 lb. versus the prior week and are up 29 lbs. from the same week last year. Trading on live cattle continues to post new contract highs due to the limited amount of live cattle available. August, October, and December futures were bullish over the last week with traders wondering if they are entering an overbought situation. Beef production was up last week due to plants getting back to full work weeks after the holiday. Supply remains tight this week with shortages being reported. Consumer demand remains sluggish compared to previous years, but the reduction in supply is keeping the industry in balance. Retail and distributive buyers are holding a conservative posture on future purchases in case the market adjusts. Carcass cutout values are adjusting lower as demand patterns are slowing down at the mid-summer mark. The 50% tariff implemented on Brazilian imports could have a substantial impact due to US imports being up 46% YOY. End cuts continue to experience market weakness. Middle meats are trading at the lower end of established ranges due to inventory adjustments after the holiday. With the high costs of beef, the spread between choice and select grades remains tight. Trade values are on a category-by-category basis and are unsettled with most categories trading at the lower end of the range.

Grinds – The market is steady. Summer demand is still vibrant. The 50% tariff on Brazilian imports is currently set to take effect on August 1st. Imported trim from Australia and Brazil is still needed to fill the void. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are mostly flat.

Loins – The market is weaker.Retail and food service volume is static due to high retail and menu costs. With packers showing some spot inventory, the category has soft overtones. Supply varies by packer. Market levels have been receding since June.

Rounds – The market is steady. Grinding operations are using more rounds due to lack of trim. Availability varies by packer and producing plant. With the 50% Brazilian tariff looming, pricing has firmed up.

Chucks – The market is steady to weaker. Retail demand is fair at best. Grinding operations have helped with demand but that is showing signs of becoming static. Supply varies by packer and sourcing facility. Trade levels were moving lower but appear to have flat-lined.

Ribs – The market is steady to weaker. Post-holiday demand is showing signs of weakness which is the typical annual trend. Supply is becoming more available. Trade levels have been declining over the last week.

PORK

The market is steady. Total pork production for last week was up 27.8% versus the prior week and up 0.7% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,371,000 compared to 2,369,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were down 2 lbs. compared to the prior week and up 2 lbs. versus the same week last year. Summer demand is reported to be good but post-holiday demand patterns are starting to take effect. Following the holiday, demand has slowed down but retailers are still using pork as a key component of their weekly features. Tariffs continue to have industry participants concerned but limited information is being reported about any actual effects. At the current time, approximately 25% of U.S. production goes to the export channel. Lean hog futures hit a one-month floor and then rebounded with strength to settle higher in August and October. Current futures remain unsettled as many contracts are teetering in overbought territory. Market values on loins, butts, and ribs are trading within established ranges at the current time.

Bellies – The market is unsettled. Demand from retail and food service is moderate to good. Trading on raw material has become unpredictable. Frozen stocks are reported to be at the lowest level in about two years. Fresh supply is becoming more available. Trade levels have been up and down over the last month.

Hams – The market is steady. Domestic demand for boneless hams is reported to be good with the retail and QSR channels. Export business to Mexico has picked up recently which is supporting the category. Supply is available. Market levels are moving sideways.

Loins – The market is steady. Overall demand for bone-in loins is being well supported by retail feature business. Boneless demand is mixed depending on the region of the country. Supply varies by packer. The market on bone-in product and boneless loins is mostly flat.

Butts – The market is steady. Domestic demand is holding strong due to adequate retail business. Export demand with Mexico and the Pacific Rim is fair at best. Supply is available but still tight. Trade levels are stable, and buyers are starting to look ahead to the Labor Day Holiday.

Ribs – The market is steady. Retail and food service demand has been reported to be consistent and strong this summer. Supply varies by packer and plant. The markets on spareribs, St. Louis Ribs, and back ribs are mostly flat.

CHICKEN

The market is steady. The total headcount for the week ending 7/12/2025 was 172,507,000 as compared to 166,498,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.78 lbs. as compared to 6.46 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand patterns are moderate and have become a bit more consistent. Most trading in the chicken category revolves around breast meat and things appear to have stabilized for the time being. Spot loads of tenderloins and wings continue to trade on the high end of the range. Export demand for leg quarters and whole legs is reported to be status quo at the current time. Trading partners are now taking a cautious approach as supply continues to improve. Slaughter numbers have picked up recently and that is starting to affect trading values in multiple categories. With supply on the rise, there appears to be more inventory available for spot business and feature activity. Hatchability has finally risen above 2024 levels but is still below the 5-year average. Over the past week, market levels have gone from soft to holding steady.

WOGS – The market is steady to weaker. Retail deli and QSR business has slowed a bit over the last month. Supply has become more available on premium and cutting stock WOGS. Market levels have been inching lower.

Tenders – The market is steady. Robust demand from the fast-food channel continues to be the main catalyst of the category. Custom portioning to support the foodservice channel is robust. Supply is limited. The market on select and jumbo sizes is moving sideways.

Boneless Breast – The market is steady. Demand from the retail and food service channels is moderate to good. Improved demand for CVP product has helped to stabilize the category. Overall supply has tightened over the last two weeks. The market on all sizes is holding even at the current time.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady. Domestic demand for drums and thighs is strong due to the grilling season. Export business on whole legs is a full steady. Supply on thigh meat is showing some excess while bone-in parts continue to be tight. Market on thigh meat is soft while bone-in drums are holding firm.

Wings – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from the food service channel has been good in July and further processors are starting to replenish inventories. Supply has tightened over the last month. The market is being pressured higher on jumbo and medium wings.

TURKEY

The market is steady to firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 7/12/2025 was 3,959,000, as compared to 3,958,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 31.14 lbs. as compared to 31.24 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand patterns, both domestically and abroad, remain adequate to keep the supply side in a sold-up position. Whole birds, back-half parts, and boneless breasts continue to be highly sought after, with limited supply being shown. Due to the respiratory virus reported earlier this year, bird weights are lower than expected and the overall supply is being squeezed. Slaughter data shows the number of turkeys processed year to date is down about 6% from last year. With recent news of plant closures, additional supply is not on the horizon anytime soon. Due to limited supply, asking prices are on the rise for boneless breast, drums, and wings. Market levels across most categories continue to trade at the high end of established ranges.

Whole Birds – The market is steady to firmer. Very few spot transactions are being reported. Due to tight supply and bird weight issues, order fulfillment is being challenged. Product availability is hard to find. Most suppliers are communicating that they are sold out until further notice. Market levels on spot loads are catching a premium.

Breast Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Seasonal demand from the retail deli and QSR channels is moderate to very good. Fresh and frozen supply is scarce on the spot market. Market levels continue to inch higher on the spot market.

Wings – The market is steady. Export business on whole wings is fair. Domestic volume on two-joint wings is adequate. Supply is tight due to limited weekly slaughter. The market is flat on Tom-sized wings.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady. Export demand for drums remains stable. Domestic demand for thigh meat has balanced out over the last month. Supply is barely adequate on parts and thigh meat. The market is holding even on drums and thigh meat.

SEAFOOD

White Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are barely adequate to adequate while maintaining a firm undertone.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is firmer. Demand is moderate to good and pricing levels are firmer. Availability is tight on the premium sizes.

Gulf Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are barely adequate to adequate while maintaining a firm undertone.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is mixed. The current market for small to mid-size tails and meat products remained stable, likely supported by renewed demand. In contrast, larger tails face ongoing challenges, with additional discounts reflecting continued buyer preference for smaller sizes.

Salmon – The market is unsettled. Farmed salmon is unsettled with pricing influenced by sellers’ supply positions. There are reports of offers above and below the current range. The West Coast whole fish market is unsettled. Smaller sizes are seeing competitive pressure, while supplies of larger sizes are described as barely adequate with moderate demand. Europe is reporting a firmer market. Norway and Scotland are reporting a firmer market with adequate to barely adequate supply amidst moderate demand. The Chilean whole fish market is weaker. Supplies are adequate to fully adequate with quiet to fair demand.

Cod – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand is moderate, while supplies have tightened.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand is moderate, while supplies have tightened.

Pollock – The market is firmer. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is unsettled. There are reports of slow demand, which has the potential to create long inventory positions.

Swai – The market is steady to firmer.

DAIRY

CHEESE

The market is mixed. The CME Block market was mixed as the week progressed. The CME Barrel market trended weaker as the week progressed. Both markets trended weaker than the prior week. In the East, spot loads of Class III milk are tighter though contractual obligations are being met. In the Central region, cheese production increased after the holiday in early July. Some manufacturers note they are in search of spot loads to meet production needs which have been somewhat difficult to obtain. In the West, demand for Class III spot milk is strong. Availability, though, is tighter as seasonally lower milk production is ongoing in the region. Overall, cheese production schedules vary from somewhat lighter to somewhat stronger across the nation. Domestic demand is reported to be steady. Stakeholders note prices for U.S. cheese continue to remain competitive against internationally produced cheeses. Export demand is stronger.

European milk production is decreasing week-over-week. Stakeholders note tighter milk supply is raising spot milk prices. According to the USDA’s most recent report, new cases of lumpy skin disease were detected in France and Italy. In late June, France’s Ministry of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty confirmed cases of lumpy skin disease in a herd located in the Savoie area of France. While the disease is not transmissible to humans, proper protocols are being implemented to mitigate any spread to other herds. European cheese manufacturing varies from steady to lighter. Some spot load inventories are tight for cheese distributors. Foreign cheese demand is reported to be strong from both the retail and food service sectors. Stakeholders convey seasonally higher temperatures are contributing to stronger sales. Demand from Southern and Eastern European buyers is strong. Export demand is reported to be steady.

BUTTER

The market is weaker. The butter market moved weaker as the week progressed and trended weaker than the prior week. Cream availability across the nation is mixed. In some areas, spot cream loads are readily available due to plant downtime. Butter production schedules vary from steady to stronger across all regions. In the East, butter manufacturers note cream volumes are ample for production needs. Many butter makers are continuing to build stock for demand later this year. In the Central region, milk outputs are declining. Some contacts in the region convey components are down from prior weeks but are up from a year ago. Spot volumes of milk are no longer widely available. Demand for cream in the region is strong from both butter and ice cream manufacturers. In the West, makers indicate that current spot load prices for cream are holding them back from running full production schedules. Demand for butter is somewhat steady for domestic use. Retail demand for butter is increasing. Food service demand for butter is down year-over-year. Demand for butter is strong from international buyers. Export butter demand is strong as domestic prices remain below those of internationally produced butter. Export demand is strong.

EGGS

The market is improved. Retail demand remains strong through mid-week, driven by competitive shelf pricing and aggressive promotions by major chains. Orders are elevated and surpass typical seasonal levels. Food service demand is showing early signs of improvement, primarily driven by increased foot traffic in summer tourist areas. Distributors are actively building inventory to meet rising demand, despite ongoing supply constraints.

Market levels are moving lower on medium sizes and moving higher on large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory down 0.3% and breaking stock inventory down 0.1% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is weaker. Liquid whites are being sourced below quoted levels on the open market. Liquid yolks have been steady since the month of May and there are reports of limited spot market activity. In the dried market, demand for yolks and whites is soft and the market has weak undertones.

FLUID MILK

The market is weaker. Milk production is decreasing throughout the nation. Stakeholders note higher temperatures and humidity is negatively affecting cow comfort. Plant downtime in certain parts of the country is contributing to reduced week-over-week milk outputs. In the East, several plants were down for multiple days, which further tightened milk availability in the region. In the Northeast, milk production is beginning to decline due to persistent heat and humidity. In the Southeast, milk production is trending downward. A few manufacturers in both regions have worked to secure additional spot volumes as they become available. Spot interest is reported to be outpacing supply in many areas. According to the USDA, milk is continuing to stay within its originating region for now but is expected to change over the coming months to move southward to meet regional needs. In the Central region, milk output is reported to be lighter. In the Midwest, high temperatures are negatively impacting milk outputs. Over the past few days, milder weather in the region contributed to a slight increase in farm level milk production. Overall, milk components are decreasing throughout the region. Milk production in California is seasonally lighter. Some handlers in the region suggest moderate summer weather is contributing to better than anticipated milk outputs in some locations. In the Pacific Northwest, farm level outputs vary from steady to lighter.

Demand for Class I milk continues to be seasonally lighter across the country. Demand for Class II, III and IV milk is steady. Class II demand for milk is strong as production for ice cream products continues to be seasonally steady. Some cheesemakers in the nation note they are short on milk volumes and are unable to find spot milk to run full production schedules. Condensed skim milk availability and demand remains steady.

OIL

Soy Oil – The Market is firmer. New weather forecasts have weighed on soybean complex prices throughout the week. Current forecasts show for the next 11-14 days are indicating much higher temperatures and drier conditions. The US has still seen no soybean/meal buying from China but there are hopes for a large sale of new crop beans soon. NASS estimates that 70% of soybean crops were in good-to-excellent condition, up 4% from 66% the previous week. Only 5% of soybeans were rated very poor to poor, 2% lower than 7% from the previous week. Iowa soybeans remain at 79% good-to-excellent condition, while soybeans in Illinois jumped 6% to reach 60%.

Canola Oil – The Canola seed market is mixed. Stats Can updated 2025 acreage expectations with farmers reporting 21.5M acres, down 2.5% from last year. The Canola crop is planted and in generally good shape. The crop ultimately depends on how the weather turns in July, though as of now it looks to be in decent shape. The canola crop is planted and in good shape, depending on how the weather turns in July. The 35% tariff on Canada passed last week but canola oil and meal are not affected under the rules of the USMCA.

Palm Oil – India recently announced a cut in the import tax on crude edible oils from 20% to 10% to help lower food prices and support its domestic refining industry. This reduction applies to crude palm, soy, and sunflower oils, while the import duty on refined edible oils remains at 35.75%. Demand for edible oils in India has been rising, with palm oil imports reaching a six-month high in May, pushing prices up. However, growing palm oil stocks are helping to limit further price increases.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Supply issues for cocoa have been exacerbated by long lasting structural problems within the industry. Price increases on cocoa and any products produced with cocoa should be expected throughout the year.

COCONUT

The coconut market is unsettled. Cost increases have continued beyond expectations and are now at record highs. This is due to climate conditions, soaring demand and reduced production capacity. Climate patterns from El Niño and La Niña have impacted growing and harvesting conditions. Surging demands from other countries, notably China, has contributed to deficiencies in the market. According to the United Coconut Association of the Philippines, there have been government initiatives in conjunction with the Philippine Coconut Authority to address rising demand and costs in the market. Price increases on coconuts and any products produced using coconuts should be expected throughout the year.

COFFEE

The coffee market is mixed. According to the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service, projection for world coffee production is expected to increase when compared to year-over-year outputs. In Brazil, the coffee harvest is underway and expected to weigh on current coffee prices. As of the past week, the coffee harvest is 24% complete compared to 34% complete as of this time last year. A secondary harvest of Robusta coffee is underway in Vietnam. According to the USDA’s most recent report, the forecast for Brazil’s coffee production rose by .5% year-over-year. In Vietnam, the coffee output projections rose by 6.9% year-over-year. The outlook for abundant coffee supplies is beginning to undercut prices.

HONEY

The honey market is unsettled. Demand for organic honey continues to grow while only three countries, Brazil, Uruguay and India, supply over 95% of organic honey product. Between 30-40% of organic honey is consumed by the retail channel. Brazil has increased their supply to meet demand. Supply tightness is being reported from Uruguay thus supporting reduced imports year to date. The honey industry continues to react to anti-dumping activity as well as tariff fluctuations. Price increases on organic honey should be expected throughout the year.

IMPORTED PEACHES

Canned peach processing is due to resume in key European hubs Greece and Spain, while in China it is already in full swing.

Greece – Cling peach harvesting in Greece is projected to resume in July. Raw material projections for the season are around 30% lower than forecast of fruit suitable for processing (canned, purée and IQF), according to the Greek Canners’ Association (E.K.E). The crop reduction this year is projected to offset carry-over since there is still surplus of unsold stocks of product from the previous season that is projected to be cleared in Q4 2025.

Spain – Peach processing of the Pavia variety in Spain is projected to resume in the second week of July. The Spanish crop projection for the season is down 5% year over year. It is yet to be determined the final amount that will be destined for fruit raw material for canning.

The industry projects peach demand from the fresh fruit market, which remained strong during June, to start softening by late June.

China – The Chinese peach harvest for canning resumed in the first half of June, slightly earlier than usual to allow processing in a timely manner to satisfy some immediate needs of the domestic baking industry. A hailstorm in the second week of June severely impacted crops in the Anhui province, where around 20% of the expected peach output was lost. Updates to the Chinese crop reports are expected to update in late July.

SPICES

Dried Garlic – US garlic acreage for the 2025 crop is down 7-10% compared to 2024. Additionally, crop emergence has slowed due to recent weather variability, potentially delaying harvest by one-to-two weeks. Central and Southern CA crops have matured with water cut completely. Arizona received 2–4 inches of rain in early June. There is potential yield risk. Current garlic inventories are sufficient to meet regular domestic demand for most fractions except granulated, which have been in exceedingly high demand due to a slowdown in offshore supplies.

Like the US onion market, US garlic growers face rising costs for labor, water, and other inputs, which are reflected in current market pricing. Tighter supplies are anticipated for minced and granulated. However, the availability of powder, ground, and other non-restricted granulated garlic is expected to be adequate.

Dried Onion – US onion acreage for dehydration is down 15-20% compared to 2024. This reduction is due to higher-than-normal carry-in inventories at the beginning of the year, stable demand, and increased carrying costs. Early California harvests experienced weather variability, leading to a two-to-three-week delay. The onion crop harvest began around mid-June 2025. Initial yield reports from California indicated a 3-5% yield decline, particularly in the Central Valley region due to unseasonal rains and potential onset of foliar disease. It’s too early for a definitive crop prediction, but this trend merits monitoring.

In this inflationary environment, growers face rising costs for labor (4-6% increase), fuel, freight, and utilities (3-5% increase). Tighter supplies are expected for piece fractions, especially large chopped, chopped, and blends. The availability of powder and minced onions is expected to be adequate to meet normal demand.

SUGAR

Domestic Cane Sugar – The market is mixed. According to the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, Cane sugar production is projected at 9.254 million STRV, a 30.889 STRV decrease in production from last month. Projections are based on modest acreage growth in Louisiana and stable acreage in Florida.

Domestic Beet Sugar – June WASDE indicates production at 5.150 million STRV is reduced 29,750 from last month on a small decrease in projected sugar beet yield.

Mexico’s sugar projections are the same as last month at 5.094 MT. Production has yet to recover fully from the effects of severe drought from two seasons ago.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. The winter wheat harvest is nearly 37% complete. US spring wheat was rated at 53% good or excellent compared to this time last year. The outlook for US wheat in the upcoming year is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Soft Red Winter and White Winter production is offset by lower Hard Red Winter wheat production. According to the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption, higher trade, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are projected to be down on reduced beginning stocks for Russia which is offsetting higher production from the EU and India. Global consumption has been raised mainly on higher food, seed and industrial use in Nigeria, Sudan, and India. Annual projected global stocks have been lowered on reductions for Russia, the United States, Iraq, and Turkey.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending July 11 2025**