BEEF

The market is steady to firmer. Total beef production for last week was up 8.6% versus the prior week and up 7.3% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 1.7% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 609,000, as compared to 582,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 7.28 million head, which is down 5.5% from last year. Live weights for last week were down 1 lb. versus the prior week and up 32 lbs. from the same week last year. Live cattle futures rallied this week, and April reached its highest level yet. Futures for June and August have strong undertones. Some industry participants are wondering if the market is getting into an overbought situation. Supply remains tight since many suppliers moved to a 4-day work week. Shortages continue to be reported with substitutions of select and choice product being commonplace. Recent tariff implementation has put the industry in a wait-and-see approach. Beef demand for the first week of April is light due to limited supply and high costs. The seasonal lift expected this time of year continues to be stifled with inconsistent weather and higher retail prices. Current demand is soft but is being offset by tight supply. With the relatively high costs of beef, the spread between choice and select grades is narrow. Market levels are holding firm with some upward pressure as the weekly cutout number inches higher.

Grinds – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from retail and foodservice is slowly on the rise, which is seasonally expected. Imported trim from Australia and Brazile is helping the supply side meet demand. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are firm with some upward pressure.

Loins – The market is firmer. Retail and foodservice volumes firmed up in early March and have been trending stronger ever since. Supply continues to be tight on choice and select grades. Market levels have been on the rise for the past couple of weeks.

Rounds – The market is steady. Demand for inside cuts has been flat due to irregular retail promotion cycles. Supply on insides and denuded product varies by packer. Market values are mostly flat.

Chucks – The market is steady. Demand has firmed up recently due to retail features and some packers using chucks in grinding operations. Supply varies by packer and available grade. Trade levels on chucks, clods, and XT product are a full steady.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Overall demand is on the rise as outdoor grilling starts to hit its stride. Consumer buying patterns tend to increase over the summer. Availability is extremely tight on choice and select product. Market levels are showing strength even during the Lenten season.

PORK

The market is steady. Total pork production for last week was up 2.5% versus the prior week and up 4.2% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,480,000 compared to 2,394,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and up 1 lb. versus the same week last year. Current demand remains moderate to good even though we are in the Lenten season. The pork cutout has been holding steady over the last month. With relatively high prices on beef cuts, retailers are turning to more pork features which is giving the category added momentum. With the port strike averted, export demand has resumed to traditional levels. The implementation of tariffs has industry participants concerned. With the United States exporting about 25% of its pork production, potential tariffs are being watched by suppliers and foreign countries alike. Lean hog futures for April continue to have strong undertones but later months are finishing in the red. Market values on loins, butts, and ribs are holding within established ranges as consumer demand shows some improvement.

Bellies – The market is unsettled. Demand from retail is moderate while QSR business is on rise. Supply is available but not in excess. Primal belly values are trading in a wide range.

Hams – The market is steady to weaker. Domestic demand is flush with Easter Holiday features and further processors will be turning their sights to deli meats in the near future. Future export demand in is question with the tariff situation. Supply is available. Market levels on green hams have soft undertones.

Loins – The market is mixed. Demand for bone-in product is a full-steady due to retail features and improved outdoor grilling. Boneless loin volume may be affected with tariffs being imposed. Supply is available. Market on bone-in and boneless loins is mostly flat.

Butts – The market is steady to firmer. Bone-in demand from retail and foodservice is good for this time of year. Export demand from South Korea continues to be steadfast. Trade levels are holding strong.

Ribs – The market is steady. March demand is meeting industry expectations. Freezer supplies for the summer grilling season are reported to be adequate. Supply varies by packer and plant. The market on spareribs, St. Louis Ribs, and back ribs is holding within established ranges.

CHICKEN

The market is firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 3/29/2025 was 166,608,000 as compared to 160,979,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.46 lbs. as compared to 6.36 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand for chicken picked up in early February and continues to show week over week improvement. As costs for other proteins are hitting record highs, consumers are turning to chicken as their go-to protein. Export demand to the Pacific Rim is reported to be fair and meeting industry expectations. The categories of WOGS, breast meat, tenderloins, and thigh meat continue to show strength. Conversely, wing demand for March Madness was soft but the category corrected downward and firmed up. The supply side is posting consistent slaughter numbers, but hatchability remains a problem and supply is tapped out. With instances of HPAI being reported in the news, some export restrictions are being implemented. Demand is extremely vibrant, and market levels continue to be pushed higher across many categories.

WOGS – The market is steady. Retail deli and fast-food business is steadfast and tends to increase in the warmer weather months. Supply is tight on the premium sizes as well as cutting stock WOGS. Market levels are holding even.

Tenders – The market is steady to firmer. Foodservice and QSR volume is reported to be strong and is driving the category. With strong demand for jumbo tenders, custom portioning is extremely robust. Supply is tight on select and jumbo product. The market on select tenders is flat while jumbo product is moving higher.

Boneless Breast – The market is firmer. Retail and foodservice demand is very strong as a result of increased feature activity. With higher price points on competing proteins, boneless breast meat is the go-to feature item. Supply is extremely tight. The market on all sizes continues to move higher on a daily basis.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand for leg quarters is static, but thigh meat is trending strong in the foodservice channel. Export business on whole legs has picked up in recent weeks. Supply is available and varies by plant. Market levels on back-half parts are flat while boneless thigh meat is moving higher.

Wings – The market is steady. Demand patterns have firmed up in early April. Higher menu costs have limited overall volume in the foodservice channel. Supply was in excess but has tightened up recently. The market on all sizes has stabilized for the time being.

TURKEY

The market is steady to firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 3/29/2025 was 3,508,000 as compared to 3,316,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 32.55 lbs. as compared to 32.32 lbs. for the same week last year. The category is being driven by the supply side and the lack of raw material is limiting overall demand patterns. Recent slaughter data shows the number of turkeys processed year to date is down 10% from last year, which was an all-time record low. With recent announcements of plant closures, current supply is constricted. Due to limited supply, asking prices are on the rise and shortages are becoming more common. Demand for turkey parts is moderate. Business on boneless breast meat is extremely strong due to a seasonal uptick in the deli business. Market levels on parts are static while boneless breast and thigh meat are being pressured higher.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. As the booking season progressed, customer orders came in later than expected. Product availability went from excess to almost sold out in the last 60 days. Some suppliers are even communicating that they are sold out until further notice. Market levels were being pushed higher but have flattened out.

Breast Meat – The market is firmer. Seasonal demand from the retail and foodservice channels is strong. Fresh and frozen supply is scarce on the spot market. Market levels have been on the rise over the last week.

Wings – The market is steady. Export business on whole wings is fair and domestic volume on two-joint wings is adequate. Supply has gotten squeezed by limited slaughter numbers. The market on Tom size wings is static.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Export business for drums is moderate to good. Demand for thigh meat is well supported by retail, foodservice, and further processing. Supply is tight on parts and thigh meat. The market on drums is flat while thigh meat has been pressured upward.

SEAFOOD

White Shrimp – The market is unsettled. There are reports of downward pressure and price reductions, though current market ranges hold steady.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is steady. Demand is moderate to good and pricing levels are holding firm. Availability is tight on the premium sizes.

Gulf Shrimp – The market is firmer. Supplies are barely adequate to adequate while maintaining a firm undertone. Upward movement has been reported.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady. The bulk of trading continues to occur within previously established levels. However, there are some reports of discounted trading.

Salmon – The market is unsettled. Farmed salmon is unsettled with pricing influenced by sellers’ supply positions. There are reports of offers above and below the current range. Wild salmon demand is moderate to firmer. West coast whole fish remains unquoted due to inadequate supply. Europe is reporting a steady to weaker market. Demand is moderate, while supply ranges from adequate to fully adequate. Chilean whole fish market is weaker. Supply is adequate to fully adequate with moderate to fair demand.

Cod – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand has improved, while supplies have tightened.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand has improved, while supplies have tightened.

Pollock – The market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is unsettled while maintaining a firm undertone.

Swai – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed. Both the CME Block & Barrel markets were mixed as the week progressed. Both markets trended firmer than the prior week.

Special Note: The USDA has released their final ruling announcing changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order system. As part of these changes, the Barrel Market will be eliminated from pricing effective June 1st, 2025. The final rule eliminates barrels from the Dairy Products Mandatory Reporting Program and will rely solely on the 40-pound block cheddar cheese price to determine the monthly average cheese prices.

Cheese production schedules range from steady to stronger throughout the U.S. In the East, milk production is heavy throughout the region, translating to active cheese production. Cheese inventories are stable to increasing. In the Central region, cheesemakers note cheese varieties are garnering more customer attention than others. Italian style cheese demand is strong, according to processors throughout the Midwest. Varietal cheesemakers say demand is quiet to steady, despite the upcoming spring holidays. Inventories in the region continue to grow. In the West, Class III spot milk demand from processors is steadier than in neighboring regions. Production schedules in the region vary from steady to stronger, which is in line with seasonally strengthening milk production. Stakeholders note that retail demand is stronger than foodservice demand. According to the USDA, sellers note domestic prices are competitive internationally.

European milk production is seasonally strengthening. That said, industry sources note that 2025 European milk production volumes are down from 2024. The British Cattle Movement Service is noted that total dairy herd is noted to be down 1.4% from January 2024, the lowest number on record, according to the USDA. Foot and mouth disease outbreaks were reported on three separate farms in Slovakia. European cheese manufacturers productions schedules are reported to be steady to stronger. European cheese prices have trended in a bearish direction in March of 2025, according to the USDA’s latest report. Industry participants note steady to strong foreign type cheese retail demand. Foodservice demand in Europe is less robust than retail demand. Interest from international buyers is mixed as some contacts note domestic prices are competitive with international prices.

BUTTER

The market is weaker. The butter market moved weaker as the week progressed. The butter market trended slightly weaker than the prior week. Cream availability is widely available in all regions. In the East, butter makers note they have plenty of cream to keep churns active. Some makers note they are running production seven days a week. Butter inventories in the region are growing. In the Central region, butter makers say trends are similar to those of recent weeks – ample availability and productive churns. In the West, butter churns are at or near capacities as they work to build inventory for Q3/Q4 demands while cream is available. Spring holiday downtime is approaching, and butter makers expect cream volumes to remain loose over the next few weeks. Domestic retail butter varies from steady to stronger while domestic foodservice demand is less robust. Buyers outside the U.S. are showing interest in domestically produced unsalted butter. Export demand is stronger, aided by competitive domestic prices compared to international prices, according to the USDA’s latest report.

EGGS

The market is unsettled. Retail demand has improved for some but remains moderate through midweek. While shelf prices have eased recently, they remain historically high and limiting consumer interest. Foodservice and distribution demand is inconsistent. While some buyers are securing supply, others remain cautious, hesitant to build inventory amid historically high prices. Concerns over potential price corrections and weak downstream demand have led to a wait-and-see approach, resulting in uneven market activity.

Market levels are unsettled for medium and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 0.2% and breaking stock inventory up 8.7% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is steady. The liquid egg market remains stable with limited activity, while the dried market holds steady. Some processors entertain minor price negotiations, especially for long-term deals, but others maintain or exceed current rates.

FLUID MILK

The market is steady. Milk outputs across much of the country are approaching spring flush volumes. In the East, milk production continues to increase seasonally. Contacts in the Northeast note milk intakes are heavy, and they have ample volumes of milk for processing needs. Seasonal milk production increases are being seen in the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Florida. According to the USDA’s latest report, while cream volumes are heavy, active butter churning and increases to Class II demand has helped open slots for additional loads. Ice Cream and other Class II manufacturing is picking up. Condensed skim loads are abundant in the East though demand is noted to be weak. In the Central region, milk components are steadily decreasing or flat week over week. Contacts note protein levels are closer to normal than those of milkfat, according to the USDA. Spring flush season has begun in the Midwest and Northern Plains. Fluid milk demand is mixed in the region as schools continue to cycle through spring break. Milk and cream supplies are expected to be ample, if not in a state of surplus in April due to scheduled plant maintenance downtimes. In the West, spot milk loads are available though some sellers are having trouble finding homes for extra milk loads. In California, stakeholders note week over week milk production increases. In the Pacific Northwest, milk outputs are seasonally stronger as milder winter weather contributed to increased outputs. Milk production in the mountain states is noted to be strong. According to the USDA’s latest report, some processors in the mountain states conveyed that butterfat components of recent incoming milk loads have significantly decreased to milk that was received in January. Manufacturers in all regions note milk volumes are meeting production needs. According to the February NASS report, milk production in the 24 major States was down 2.6% from February 2024. Class III & IV milk demand is largely steady and active. Class II demand is steady to higher. Class I bottling demand varies by region as some educational institutions return from spring break. Active butter churning and an increase in ice cream and cream cheese manufacturing is alleviating some excess cream loads. Condensed skim milk is abundant in the East and more available in the West.

OIL

Soy Oil

CBOT soybean oil futures were mixed.  CBOT soybean oil futures rallied to their highest level since early March.

The ongoing trade uncertainty is compounded by concerns that China may turn toward Brazil for soybean supply beyond the traditional seasonal shift we see through the end of summer.

As of March 21, soybean oil inventories at China’s major ports were estimated to have fallen 3.5% week-over-week.

The USDA Quarterly Stocks and Planting Intentions reports could significantly influence short-term market dynamics. The 3/31/25 report indicated that there will be more corn planted over soybeans for 2025.  Analysts currently forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage to fall from last year which would be tied for the lowest number of planted acres in the last 5 years.  

On the global front, China's soybean imports from the U.S. surged by 84% in the first two months of 2025, signaling robust demand. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing well, with 80% of the crop already harvested and production estimates stabilizing at a record yield. This strong harvest pace is exerting downward pressure on soybean prices as Brazil is gearing up to re-enter the export space, which could limit potential upward movement in the market as Brazil takes market share from the U.S.

Given these developments, soybean oil futures could remain under pressure with key uncertainties around policy and production influencing short-term outlooks. Additionally, demand for soybean oil remains uncertain due to the ongoing complexities surrounding U.S. biofuel mandates and tax credits and subsidies, all of which are limiting future market engagement.

Canola Oil

The Canola market is strong to firmer.   The Baseline 10% tariff on most imports to the U.S. announced Wednesday seems to not affect agricultural imports. Other tariffs previously announced are still in effect, but Canada and Mexico were both spared the 10% baseline tariff. As such, any goods compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement signed during Trump’s first term in office will continue to see a 0% tariff.  Canadian agricultural exports to the US are compliant under the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, which generally maintains the original North American Free Trade Agreement’s provisions for tariff- and quota-free trade for most agricultural products.

Palm Oil

The palm oil market has shown a positive trend, marking its third consecutive session of gains. Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of March declined by approximately 8% indicating weaker global demand. Traders are also awaiting the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data at the end of the month to provide further insight into market conditions. Production estimates for Malaysia from March 1-25 suggest an increase of 5-8% compared to the previous month.

Palm oil remains priced higher than its competitors, particularly soybean oil, which continues to limit its attractiveness in key markets such as India. Indonesia’s ongoing commitment to a 40% biodiesel blend mandate could reduce palm oil exports by 5-7%, tightening supply. The market’s direction will likely depend on the upcoming MPOB data and the impact of Indonesia's biodiesel policies on palm oil availability.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Rising costs of cocoa are expected to increase the financial burden on chocolate producers and consumers. Supply issues for cocoa have been exacerbated by long lasting structural problems within the industry as seen in crop diseases and low wages paid to farmers. Potential price volatility is expected due to financial pressure on this market. Price increases on cocoa and any products produced with cocoa should be expected throughout the year.

DRIED FRUIT & NUT INDUSTRY

The nut markets have faced several weather-related challenges that have impacted production.

Pecans: In Texas, heavy rainfall combined with drought contributed to mixed outcomes for pecan yields and quality. According to the University of Georgia and Land IQ, the crop of Pecans in Georgia, home to some of the oldest orchards, suffered the greatest amount of loss from Hurricane Helene last fall. Sources note it will take 8-10 years to recover this crop. Demand for pecans domestically is robust. Demand internationally is showing significant growth.

Walnuts: The Walnut industry is noting prices have rebounded from historic lows in 2024 with record supply available. Demand for walnuts remains strong domestically due to their health benefits and versatile uses. Global consumption of walnuts continues to rise.

Cashews: The cashew market has seen several supply chain disruptions due to production declines and logistical costs. Demand for cashews remains strong amongst consumers globally.

Almonds: Demand for almonds continues to be strong, with sources noting a 5.7% year over year increase in almond shipments.

Peanuts: The crop in the US for 2024 was reported to be strong. Higher production of peanuts helped to stabilize supply over the past year. Demand is strong but has not outpaced supply.

Coconut: The coconut market is unsettled. Demand from China, Europe and the United States continues to rise. Drought conditions due to El Nino in the Philippines contributed to the quantity and quality of the coconut crop. Additionally, packaging costs and operational disruptions have contributed to record-level prices. Any impact from tariffs could further these issues. Price increases on coconuts and any products produced using coconuts should be expected throughout the year.

Cranberries: The U.S. cranberry crop in 2024 faced several challenges that impacted production. In some growing regions, early frost damaged cranberry blossoms. In Wisconsin, the leading producer of cranberries, drought conditions persisted throughout the growing season. In the Northeast, several heat waves over the summer stressed the plants and reduced the yield. That said, the overall cranberry production in 2024 was 2% higher than the prior year.

COFFEE

The coffee market is unsettled. Coffee prices are expected to continue soaring due to adverse weather in both Brazil and Vietnam. Drought and higher temperatures in Brazil during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and Robusta yields to fall below initial projections. Price increases on coffee should be expected to continue throughout 2025.

IMPORTS

Skipjack tuna prices have risen due to La Niña affecting fishing conditions.

Yellowfin tuna supply remains tight, keeping prices strong.

Tongol tuna catches are struggling, leading to higher finished goods prices.

Rice prices remain high, with jasmine rice still above average.

Olive oil prices have dipped slightly but remain elevated due to production constraints.

Peppers from Turkey are seeing price hikes due to rising raw material and labor costs.

Canned tomato products from Italy are sold out, signaling potential price increases next season.

Peach markets are stable, with new crops in China and Greece expected in July, but April’s bloom will provide a clearer outlook. South African peaches remain more expensive than Chinese options despite tariffs.

Pineapple prices in Thailand are expected to rise as supply remains low with no peak season anticipated.

SUGAR

The sugar market is mixed. According to the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the 2024/25 US sugar supply was decreased from the prior month.  Decreased imports are offsetting the increases in cane sugar production.

Cane sugar production in the U.S. is down from last month as the reduction in Florida outweighs the Louisiana increases.

Beet sugar production is raised and could reach a new record level if all indicators stay at the current level.  Beet Sucrose Recovery has been increased meaning a higher possible yield than previously forecasted.

Mexico’s 2024/25 sugar production is lowered by 235,000 metric tons.  This reduction is primarily based on the lower estimate for sucrose recovery and lower area harvested derived from statistical analysis using data published by Mexico’s National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugarcane.

WHEAT

The wheat market is steady. According to the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks were raised 18% over last year. Consumer demand domestically for food products made from wheat flour is relatively stable. The global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade and increased ending stocks. China’s sluggish import pace of wheat is expected to be the largest import change for the year globally. Higher supplies are being seen from Australia, Russia, Argentina, the United States and Turkey. As of April 2, 2025, a 10% tariff on all imported goods was imposed. For Mexio and Canada, compliant goods within the USMCA will continue to see a 0% tariff.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending March 28, 2025**