BEEF

The market is mixed. Total beef production for last week was down 11.1% versus the prior week and down 0.3% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 1.2% compared to the same period last year. Total headcount for last week was 542,000 as compared to 559,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 21.44 million head, which is down 4.1% from last year. Live weights for last week were up 3 lbs. versus the prior week and up 29 lbs. from the same week last year. Weekly beef demand is consistent across most of the subcategories. In combination with lower slaughter rates, market levels are trading within established levels. As previously reported, availability on select product continues to be extremely tight and sellers are holding firm at the current time. The beef cutout continues to trail about 30 days behind historical benchmarks and market levels are considered somewhat bullish for this time of year. Cattle futures are showing some relative weakness over the next few months but are staying near the higher end of the trading ranges. Higher live weights are creating more pounds per carcass which is providing a small offset in the available supply. Future demand on the spot market remains active as buyers look for buying opportunities over the upcoming weeks. The overall category continues to be unpredictable due to higher primal costs, higher retail prices, and tight supply which is taking time to play out.

Grinds – The market is steady to weaker. Demand is starting to decline but that is normally expected following the Labor Day Holiday. Availability varies by packer. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are trending lower.

Loins – The market is steady to weaker. Demand has been on the decline since July, but now supply and demand are starting to balance out. Supply varies by supplier and less spot opportunities are hitting the open market. Trade levels have been soft but are starting to show signs of firming up.

Rounds – The market is steady to weaker. Retail volume has slowed a bit due to reduced feature activity. Availability varies by packer and more product is hitting the open. Trade levels continue to be soft.

Chucks – The market is steady to firmer. Retail demand and feature activity is picking up as we move into the Fall months. Supply on chucks and clods vary by packer. Trade levels have been moving higher.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Retail and food-service demand is consistent for this time of year. Future demand and holiday bookings are starting to take shape, which is providing some additional lift. Supply is tight on both choice and select product with spot buys harder to find. Trade levels are being pressured higher.

PORK 

The market is mixed. Total pork production for last week was down 4.1% versus the prior week and up 4.9% compared to the same week last year. Total headcount for last week was 2,327,000 compared to 2,245,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and up 2 lbs. versus the same week last year. Domestic demand from the retail and foodservice channel is performing well, but export sales are slowing down for various reasons. Higher production numbers and slaughter rates continue to be reported. From a statistical perspective, production is up year over year and above the 5-year average. Hog futures have been leaning into the red which signals an overbought situation. Supply in the United States is predicted to be good throughout the end of the calendar year as the pig crop numbers continue to outpace the previous year. On the opposite end of the spectrum, global production remains hampered by EU farm policies. Most market values in the key categories are trading within established ranges.

Bellies – The market is weaker. Domestic demand has been slow as a result of higher retail prices and limited feature activity. Demand from the food service and QSR channels is fair at best. Supply is available. Primal belly market values have been trending downward for the last month.

Hams – The market is steady to weaker. Domestic demand is fair as further processors begin to make finalized production plans for the holidays. Bone-in ham business to Mexico has been sluggish as the Peso to US Dollar rate has hit its lowest point this year. Supply is available. Market levels are getting some downward pressure.

Loins – The market is steady to firmer. Retail business on bone-in loins is very strong with post-holiday ad features. Mixed demand for boneless product continues to be reported. Supply varies by packer especially on boneless product. Market levels on bone-in are being pressured higher while boneless is trying to hold stable.

Butts – The market is steady. Domestic demand is moderate to good with retail demand being the biggest driver. Export business on boneless product to the South Korea has picked up this month. Supply varies by packer. Trade levels on bone-in and boneless are mostly flat.

Ribs – The market is steady to weaker. Labor Day business was reported to be moderate to good. Following the holiday, buyers are taking a wait and see approach. Supply varies by packer and producing plant. Market on spareribs is mixed while St. Louis ribs and back ribs are holding steady.

CHICKEN

The market is steady. Total headcount for the week ending 9/7/2024 was 149,584,000 as compared to 154,738,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.58 lbs. as compared to 6.41 lbs. for the same week last year. Based on historical trends, demand for chicken tends to wane after Labor Day but this year is trending a little differently. As consumers look for value in the protein category, chicken is proving to be the answer. Breast meat, tenders, chunk meat, dark meat and WOGS are experiencing strong demand. In combination with active demand, reduced slaughter year over year is propping up market values. Chick hatchability rates hovering just above 80% is another factor causing tight supply. Consequently, the entire category remains firm across most lines of business.

WOGS – The market is steady to firmer. Fast-food and retail deli volume is highly active as a home meal replacement is picking up. Supply is tight on the premium and heavier sizes alike. Market levels have inched a bit higher.

Tenders – The market is steady. Foodservice and QSR volume has not slowed down and continues to be the key driver of the category. Supply is tight on all sizes. Market levels on select and jumbo tenders are flat.

Boneless Breast – The market is unsettled. Demand tends to wane in the Fall months, but this year is atypical. Retail business is noted to be very active as consumers look for value at the supermarket. Supply is tight on select and medium sizes while jumbo meat is more accessible. The market is steady on small and medium sizes while jumbo product has soft undertones.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady. Dark meat and back-half parts continue to be a cost-efficient option for consumer purchases at retail and foodservice alike. Whole legs and thigh meat business is moderate and supported by the export channel. Supply is tight and varies by plant. The market on leg quarters and thigh meat is mostly flat.

Wings – The market is steady. Demand was slow in August and is now starting to pick up with football season underway. Supply is available but has tightened over the last couple of weeks. The market is moving sideways on all sizes.

TURKEY

The market is steady. Total headcount for the week ending 9/7/2024 was 3,272,000 as compared to 3,254,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 32.92 lbs. as compared to 30.75 lbs. for the same week last year. The turkey category is showing some improvement in in the parts segment. Spot activity on whole birds is still spotty as most buyers have their holiday needs buttoned up. Demand for back-half parts is picking up and export business is reported to be fair. Imported breast meat coming into the United States is still causing some excess supply. With outdoor temperatures dropping in the Fall months, bird migrations will begin and HPAI may become a topic of concern.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. Demand for whole birds has flat lined as most buyers have firmed up their holiday needs. Inventory from calendar year 2023 is still appearing in the marketplace. Market levels are holding even.

Breast Meat – The market is steady. Retail, food service, and further processor demand was on the rise for two months and has now leveled off. Supply of fresh and frozen product is available. Market levels are trending sideways.

Wings – The market is steady. Whole wings are well supported by the export channel while domestic business on two-joint wings is uneventful. Supply is available and varies by plant. The market is holding within established ranges.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Export business for drums is rated as moderate to good. Domestic demand for drums is getting a boost in volume due to grinding operations. Thigh meat is well supported by retail grinds in the grocery channel. Supply is available but not in excess. The market on drums is being pressured higher.

SEAFOOD

Gulf Shrimp – The market is unsettled. Current offers for domestic origin have been fulfilled recently at the higher end of the range.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Consistent demand and overall tighter supplies with dwindling replacements have kept the market firmer on smaller sizes. Demand remains moderate for larger sizes.

White Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Increased overseas pricing and barely adequate supplies are due to strong momentum in the cooked, peeled, and deveined categories.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady to firmer. On-hand inventory is extremely tight at the current time and demand patterns are strong. There are reports of sellers using price and allocation, while limiting sales, to protect current inventories.

Salmon – The market is steady to fully steady. Wild salmon is holding within established ranges with strong undertones due to tight supply. The Chilean frozen fillet market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand. The Norwegian whole fish sector is holding firm and driven by barely adequate supply.

Cod – The market is steady and mostly unchanged. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand is fair at the current time.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Pollock – The market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Swai – The market is unsettled. Supplies are fully adequate while demand is static.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed. The CME Block market was mixed as we moved through the week. The CME Barrel market moved firmer as the week progressed. Both markets trended firmer than the prior week. Tightening farm level milk outputs continue to contribute to slowed production across most regions. Milk available for Class III cheese processors is constrained by Class I bottling order pulls for schools. Due to these constraints, some cheese plants are not operating at full capacity. In the West, manufacturers are running mostly steady production schedules. The capacity for block cheese production in the region is increasing as new facilities come online. In the Central region, some cheesemakers are full and running heavy production schedules while milk is available. In the East, the balance between supply and demand is giving support to market cheese prices. Some contacts suggest that after Class I bottling pipelines are replenished, additional volumes will be available for cheese production. Demand for cheese is steady and inventories are expected to tighten. Foodservice demand is reported as steady while retail demand continues to strengthen. Domestic demand is reported as steady. Demand from international buyers is moderate.

Across Europe, milk production is continuing to weaken due to summer temperatures and herd health challenges. A reemergence of disease in some herds has raised concerns about milk availability in the coming months resulting in higher prices being supported. Cheese production in Europe is trending weaker with some manufacturers noting tight stocks and difficulty adding to inventories. According to the USDA’s latest report, market prices are heading upward. European demand for varietal cheeses from the retail sector is reported as steady while the foodservices sector varies from stronger to steady. Retail demand is at anticipated seasonal levels. According to industry sources, mozzarella and cream cheese are receiving stronger interest from buyers.

BUTTER

The market is weaker. The butter market moved weaker as the week progressed and trended weaker than the prior week. According to the USDA, cream volumes remain tight across most of the country due to seasonal lows in milk outputs. The recent holiday weekend allowed for cream supplies to be more available though not enough to note a true excess throughout the country. Butter production varies from steady to stronger. In the East, butter churning has been busier than in recent weeks due to the influx of cream from the recent holiday weekend. In the Central region, butter churning has shifted into high gear, particularly in the Midwest, according to the USDA’s latest report. In the West, butter manufacturers indicate retail butter production lines are churning at strong paces while bulk lines are generally churning at significantly lighter paces. Manufacturers convey inventories are comfortable for Q4 demands. Some stakeholders convey lower recent temperatures should allow for cream loads going from the West to the Midwest to be accommodated, according to the USDA. Butter demand varies from strong to steady. Unsalted butter loads continue to remain tight across most regions. Butter demand is gathering its seasonal strength from both the retail and foodservice segments.

EGGS

The market is weaker. Retail demand has been slow for the past couple of weeks due to higher price points in the retail channel. Grocers used eggs as a loss leader through August, but that trend has slowed considerably in September. The distribution and foodservice channels are declining in volume due to the end of the summer travel season. With a soft market, buyers are taking a wait and see approach on weekly purchases, which is putting even more pressure on a downward market. 

Market levels are moving lower on medium sizes and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 4.6% and breaking stock inventory up 6.2% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category has slowed considerably in the retail channel. Suppliers are able to source raw material easily for their production needs. In addition, suppliers are keeping their finished inventory tight in a weak market. Orders and bids are being fulfilled at prices on the low end of the range. The yolks and dried markets have soft undertones.

FLUID MILK

The market is weaker. Milk outputs continue to decline in most parts of the country. Both cream and condensed skim availability remains limited. In California and New Mexico, milk production has trended higher in recent weeks. In the Pacific Northwest, farm level output is weaker though demand is being met. Some ice cream producers in the region have bought at minimum levels for most of the season. In the Midwest, recently warmer days have put pressure on weekly milk yields. In the Northeast, milk handlers relay seasonally lighter milk production from the farm levels. In the East, milk loads continue to be moved in from other regions of the country when necessary. School schedules have pushed Class I demand for bottling orders to its peak with dairy processors relaying the pinch of fluid milk that is upon them. Class II & III production is mixed as available milk supply goes towards bottling orders. Ice cream processing has slowed while butter churning has seen a resurgence. Butter plant managers reported expecting to run full churns through the week but are uncertain that cream will remain abundant moving into the next week. All other Classes are reported as steady.

SOY OIL

The market is unsettled. Early trading in the week improved and the market has slowly started to come off the low end of the range. USDA reports released this week included higher than expected soybean acreage and yield. Despite recent activity, these critical facts are having an effect on bearish futures and keeping the market lower than expected.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Continuing weather, political conditions and crop diseases continue to keep the cost of cocoa at record highs. Price increases and potential allocations are expected as we progress through the year.

COFFEE

The coffee market is unsettled. Due to weather conditions in growing regions and increased freight and labor costs, price increases are expected as we progress through the year.

SUGAR

The market is unsettled. The U.S. sugar crop came in below expectations and this is likely to put additional strain on inventories over the coming months. Allocations and longer lead times should be expected with multiple suppliers not looking to take on new business.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. The U.S. Spring wheat harvest is 70% complete with hot and dry conditions in the Northern Plains expecting to speed up progress in its final weeks. The spring wheat is on par with the 5-year average. Winter wheat planting has begun with overall planting at 2% complete. Durum production in the US is forecasted at a 6-year high overall due to increased yields while white wheat is up 12% over the 5-year average. On a global scale, the yields for Argentina, Australia, and Canadian crops are forecasted to be higher. Ongoing concerns remain for European markets which have been under pressure due to various weather conditions. According to the USDA’s most recent Wheat Outlook report, crop conditions in France, the largest producer in the EU, have deteriorated due to ongoing wet conditions resulting in their lowest production in more than four decades. Pakistan’s recent import ban has yields forecasted to be lower. Egypt’s exports are trending higher with strong flour shipments to several African countries. In Nigeria, the import duty was suspended thus allowed for a large increase in consumed wheat and imports.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending September 6, 2024**